Willy Woo thinks this is the early stage of a bull market: Brothers, hold onto your chips Willy Woo raised the probability that the bottom of BTC has already formed to 90% today. This time, he didn't use the "four-year halving cycle" to call it bull, but instead made it clear that he was deliberately downplaying the four-year cycle, because what really drives Bitcoin now has shifted from new supply to liquidity. His entire logic has actually been strung together recently. On September 6th, he discovered that the degree of decoupling between BTC and the US stock market was approaching that of 2015. The last time such a level of decoupling occurred was during the 2017 bull market. At the same time, BTC's internal liquidity is becoming increasingly strong, while stocks are starting to become brittle. On September 3rd, he even suggested that Bitcoin may gradually switch from the traditional 4-year cycle to a 6-8 year debt/liquidity cycle closer to TradFi in the future. After the CLARITY vote failed last night, this judgment received another interesting validation: Coinbase CVD once fell to about -6659 BTC, and US funds were selling, but Binance clearly rebounded from its low, and the offshore market continued to attract funds. In other words, the US panicked and crashed due to policy news, while global money did not run together. Short term does not necessarily mean a straight upward trend. Willy Woo's own model is still keeping an eye on the short-term holding cost line around $71000, and if the cash flow continues to weaken, it is entirely possible to step back again. But if his 90% judgment is correct, the most likely mistake he makes now is being washed out by every big drop in the early stages of a bull market. Brothers, hold on to the chips. The real big market often starts when everyone is still debating whether the bear market has ended or not.