The market is currently highly anticipating a 25bp rate hike. So what really determines where BTC goes next is whether there will be further hikes after this one. You can think of it as three scenarios: Rate hike + dovish remarks If the dollar and yields pull back, BTC could see a clear rebound after bearish pressure eases. Rate hike + neutral remarks bitcoin:native might sweep liquidity up and down first, with the key levels for bulls and bears being 75K at the bottom and 78K at the top. Rate hike + hawkish remarks If the Fed signals further rate hikes and the 10Y yield stays above 5%, bitcoin:native could keep dropping, potentially down to 72K. Therefore, tonight’s wording and dot plot are more important than the rate hike itself. The market is unlikely to see rapid drops or surges but rather liquidity sweeps in both directions. Currently, the market has thick liquidity on both sides! Liquidity clearance above at 78K, liquidity clearance below at 74K.