The Fed announces its rate decision Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. CME FedWatch is pricing roughly a 90–92% chance of a 25bp hike. A hold is around 8–10%. Setup: - Inflation still sticky (CPI 3.4%, PPI 5.4%) - Warsh committed to a hard 2% target - Treasury buying bonds to lean on yields - White House wants "the lowest rates in the world" The Fed and Treasury are pulling in opposite directions. That's the tape into 2 p.m.