看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|Sep 16, 2026 06:31
Brothers, tonight don't just focus on whether to raise interest rates or not. Even if we raise interest rates by 25 basis points, the subsequent statements may be different, and the US stock market and gold may have completely different trends. The interest rate resolution was announced at 2:00 am Beijing time on September 17th, and a press conference was held at 2:30 am. I will watch these half hours together and not rush to give the first K-line offline conclusion. Anticipating three scenarios is more useful than chasing gains and selling losses on the spot. The first option is to raise interest rates, and it implies that tightening will continue in the future. In this situation, the market needs to reassess how long high interest rates will last. If US bond yields and the US dollar strengthen simultaneously, US stocks, especially high valuation growth stocks, may face greater pressure. Gold may not necessarily provide a safe haven, as rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, but hedging demand may form a hedge. The second option is to raise interest rates, but remain cautious about subsequent actions. If this interest rate hike has been fully anticipated and there is no stronger tightening signal released at the press conference, the market may actually breathe a sigh of relief. It is not surprising that the US stock market has recovered, while gold will continue to depend on the US dollar and real interest rates. It cannot be assumed that all assets should fall just because the word 'interest rate hike' is used. The third option is not to raise interest rates, and the subsequent statements will be more moderate. This may support risk appetite, as both the US stock market and gold have the potential to receive support. But I also have to ask: why not add it? If it is the easing of inflationary pressure and concerns about a significant economic downturn, the market implications are not the same. For my own fixed investment, none of the three situations need to be solved by a big operation. If there is a decline after the interest rate hike, the basic investment will be executed according to the budget, and additional funds will be arranged in batches, not treating each pullback as the final low price. If we don't raise interest rates, the market will rise, and we don't spend the budget for the next few months in advance, we accept that we can't buy every period of growth. What really needs to be paused for inspection are changes in income, short-term expenses, or positions that have exceeded the tolerance range. We cannot talk about long-term investment while letting living expenses bear the risk of meeting outcomes. What is worth watching tonight is whether the policy has changed the original judgment and whether the position is still appropriate. Fixed investment can reduce timing indecision, but it does not automatically eliminate losses. Plan ahead and compare the results when they are available. There is no need to make a last-minute decision on the whereabouts of a large sum of money at the most tense moment of 2 o'clock in the morning.
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