Yesterday, I noticed Polymarket's probability dropped from 30% to 18%. Combined with Circle and Bitcoin starting to decline before the market opened, I predicted that the Clarity Act is highly likely to fail the vote. The next motion will probably have to wait until the lame duck season between November 3rd, after the midterm elections, and January 3rd, 2027. This also depends on the results of the midterm elections: 1. Republicans retain control of both the House and Senate (Polymarket probability: 11%) CLARITY has the best chance of continuity, and it can still be pushed forward in 2027. However, the 60-vote threshold in the Senate remains, meaning Democratic support is still necessary. 2. Democrats take the House, Republicans retain the Senate (Polymarket probability: 33%) The lame duck window in November–December 2026 becomes even more critical. If delayed until 2027, the new Democratic-controlled House will likely demand renegotiation of certain provisions. 3. Democrats take the Senate (Polymarket probability: 1%) This would have a bigger impact. Control and agenda of the Senate Banking Committee would shift, and the current CLARITY text is more likely to be revised, especially regarding DeFi, SEC authority, AML, and conflict of interest provisions. 4. Democrats take both the House and Senate (Polymarket probability: 53%) If CLARITY fails to pass by the end of 2026, it’s highly likely that 2027 will see a new round of market structure legislative negotiations, making it much harder for the current version to continue.