**[Bitunix Analyst: Rate Hikes Are Not the End, the Real Test for the Fed and the U.S. Treasury Market Is Just Beginning]** BlockBeats News, September 16 — The Federal Reserve's policy decision has entered its final stage, but the market's focus has gradually shifted away from the question of "whether to raise rates." What is more worth observing is how the Fed explains its subsequent policies to the market and whether this action can re-establish expectations for controlling inflation. When the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpasses 5%, market pricing is no longer just about short-term policy rates but is reassessing inflation, fiscal policy, and capital demand in the U.S. over the coming years. This is also the core constraint faced by recent policy operations under Powell. The Treasury Department, by expanding long-term Treasury buybacks and coordinating yen policies, hopes to stabilize financial markets. However, actual results show that while the government can influence market liquidity, it cannot directly determine the cost of long-term capital. As the deficit continues to expand, AI and infrastructure projects continue to absorb capital, and global investors reduce allocations to traditional long-term bonds, the market's demand for higher yields is no longer just a short-term sentiment but may gradually reflect a new equilibrium price. Energy risks further complicate this issue. The Middle East conflict is no longer just driving up oil prices; Saudi Arabia's two major energy transport routes are under simultaneous pressure, while the Russia-Ukraine battlefield further disrupts diesel and refining supplies. Energy supply itself is beginning to affect transportation and manufacturing, turning inflation from a pricing issue into a supply capacity issue. This makes it harder for central banks to quickly resolve the problem through demand management. At the same time, global capital markets are facing another structural shift: AI continues to absorb massive amounts of capital, but investors are starting to more carefully distinguish between "the actual productivity brought by AI" and "how much capital AI needs to sustain growth." If corporate capital expenditures continue to rise while facing higher financing costs, the market will not only demand revenue growth in the future but also higher returns on capital. Therefore, what truly deserves attention today is not the Fed's 25 basis points but whether policy actions can alter the chain reactions between long-term interest rates, energy supply, and global capital allocation. If short-term policy tightening leads to long-term yields remaining high, it means the market's pricing of U.S. long-term inflation and fiscal risks may have decoupled from the Fed's cycle. Conversely, if long-term yields stabilize, it would indicate that the market is beginning to believe that policy is sufficient to control inflation expectations. This will become a more critical watershed for asset pricing in September than a single rate hike.