The market is fully pricing a Fed hike, so the 25bp move itself may matter less than the guidance that follows. The key question is whether the Fed presents this as the start of a renewed tightening cycle, or as a one-off adjustment that brings policy close to the terminal rate. If the message is: “Inflation risks justified one more hike, but policy is now sufficiently restrictive.” then the expected path can shift from: +25bp now → possible further hikes to: +25bp now → likely done. markets price the full expected rate path, not just today’s decision. A lower expected terminal rate can pull down yields, relieve pressure on the long end, and improve liquidity conditions for crypto. So a hike does not automatically mean tighter financial conditions. If the hike comes with sufficiently dovish forward guidance, it could actually be more bullish for risk assets than a hold that leaves the door open to multiple future hikes.