The price of WTI has broken through $105. Looking at historical data, whenever it almost surpasses this price in the first half of the year, the U.S. and Iran tend to enter negotiations. So, many friends think there’s a higher chance of Trump TACO-ing next. But what exactly can Trump TACO? I did some calculations, and there are probably five things, but all five would be a slap in Trump’s face: 1. Withdraw U.S. troops from Iran, which means unblocking Iranian ports. However, even if Iranian ports are unblocked, it doesn’t necessarily mean Iran will unblock the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran doesn’t unblock it, it’s like the U.S. is suffering unilaterally, while Iran can resume importing and exporting oil. 2. Lift economic sanctions on Iran. This would contradict the recently initiated "Orphan Action," which aims to further cut off Iran’s financial, trade, and energy revenues. Plus, sanctions were still being expanded in September. 3. Unfreeze Iran’s overseas assets. This might be the easiest and least stressful option for Trump, though it would still be a slap in the face—just a lighter one compared to the others. 4. Pay Iran war reparations or allocate reconstruction funds. This one would be the most humiliating. Iran has already publicly listed reparations as one of the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. No matter how you spin it, this would be a clear-cut war indemnity. 5. Stop the war and accept Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz’s passage plan. In plain terms, this means agreeing to Iran charging fees for Hormuz access. That would be a loud slap, especially since Trump has repeatedly stated that Hormuz fees are impossible. So, even though I’m shorting oil, I think the probability of Trump TACO-ing is still pretty low. Instead, there’s a slightly higher chance of countries, including China, pressuring Iran to open up parts of the Hormuz shipping lanes. After all, this would help ease inflation in Iran-friendly countries, including China. @Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFDs, prediction markets—all-in-one trading platform.