3D Integrated Trading System | BTC Evening Market Analysis (3/3): Structural Form and Core Judgment Structural form: The price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating and accumulating momentum in a narrow range of 76K-79.5K. BTC briefly rebounded to around 79500 today and then fell back to below 77K, still at the lower edge of the daily support zone of 76K-78300. The price has been fluctuating repeatedly in this range for over 24 trading days, and the volatility continues to compress. I feel like BTC is about to change direction! Support and resistance. The first support below is 76K, and then it goes down to around 75K. The first resistance above is 80K, and after breaking through, look at 82K-84K. As long as 71000 remains unbroken, the bottom structure of the weekly bull market is still in place. However, from the weekly chart below, it can be seen that the center of gravity is slowly shifting downwards, and it is not impossible for the price to rebound to 73500 or even 71000 in the future. It depends on the subsequent interest rate hikes and the catalyst of Walsh's statement. Xiaolong's core judgment: There are three new clues to the BTC price drop today. Firstly, the yield on US Treasury bonds has exceeded 5.02%, reaching its highest level since 2007. The soaring yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds directly suppresses the valuation of risk assets, which is the core macro factor that puts pressure on BTC today. Secondly, the AI sector suffered a heavy blow, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeting 5.9%. Anthropic、OpenAI、 Elon Musk and other AI giants collectively called for slowing down the pace of AI development, triggering a sell-off in technology stocks and a sharp contraction in market risk appetite. Recently, American AI giants have shifted their focus towards China. If they don't take action, they won't die; If you want to be artificial, China will accompany you to the end. Thirdly, the CLARITY bill has encountered opposition from the Democratic Party, with the probability of Polymarket passing plummeting from 35% to 16%. The certainty of cryptocurrency regulation has been postponed until 2027, and there is a lack of institutional catalysts in the short term. But there is a positive signal: ETFs have turned into net inflows of $160 million, with BlackRock IBIT leading the way with a daily inflow of $134 million. Institutional buying is rebounding, forming a divergence from price declines. However, do not have too high expectations for ETF institutions, as they are not just boasting. Core judgment: Today's decline is a continuation of macro deleveraging, with the triple suppression of US debt breaking 5%, AI panic, and LARITY setback. But the ETF has turned into a net inflow, the whale buying wall has not been withdrawn, long-term holders continue to lock up their positions, and the on chain structure is not damaged. The current BTC market is at a short-term watershed of 76K. If it holds, it will fluctuate and accumulate momentum. If it falls below, it will test around 74.5K and 73.5K.