The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has climbed to nearly 95% As of now, the market has already priced in a September rate hike by the Fed. In plain terms, the hike itself likely won’t shock the market too much, since most investors already see it as inevitable. Of course, some of you are still asking me if I still think there won’t be a hike. Honestly, my opinion doesn’t matter much—after all, I’m not the Fed. And yes, I’m part of that small 5% minority, but I think this time I might actually be wrong. That said, the key focus is on how the market interprets this. Personally, based on the current outlook, if the Fed only hikes once, keeps the dot plot restrained, and Waller’s upcoming comments aren’t too hawkish, the market probably won’t react too nervously. What worries me more is if the Fed hikes in September but the dot plot still signals two more hikes this year, and Waller expresses concerns about current inflation. Add to that Japan’s rate hike this Friday, and the market could indeed feel some pain. @Gate Crypto, US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFDs, prediction markets—all in one place for trading.