看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|Sep 15, 2026 02:30
Brothers, why are even our gold, US stocks, and BTC under pressure when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates? Simply put, because the price of money has changed. Enterprises borrow money to expand, residents borrow money to buy houses, and investors compare stocks and bonds, all of which cannot avoid interest rates. The impact of interest rate hikes is transmitted layer by layer along financing costs, asset valuations, and funding choices. one ️⃣ Let's talk about the US dollar first. If US interest rates are more attractive compared to other countries, the US dollar is usually more easily supported. But if the market has long expected a rate hike, it may not continue to rise after it is announced, and it still depends on how other central banks behave. two ️⃣ US bonds need to distinguish between price and yield. The increase in new bond yields often puts pressure on the prices of previously low interest fixed rate bonds. However, long-term bonds are also influenced by growth and inflation expectations, and the 10-year yield does not rise as much as the Federal Reserve adds. three ️⃣ The most direct issue with the US stock market is valuation. Previously, people were willing to pay higher prices for future growth, but when other assets could provide higher returns, stocks had to offer more convincing profits. Especially for companies with profits still far in the future, they are often more sensitive to changes in interest rates. four ️⃣ Gold mainly depends on real interest rates, as well as the US dollar and safe haven demand. Raising interest rates may increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, but if the market is also concerned about geopolitical risks, gold may also strengthen. five ️⃣ BTC cannot just focus on long-term narratives. When short-term funds tighten and risk appetite decreases, it may also be sold. Long term optimism and short-term resilience are two different things. six ️⃣ As for A-shares, it should be combined with domestic policies, credit, and corporate profits; Commodities such as crude oil also depend on supply. We cannot use a 'rate hike' to explain the rise and fall of all assets. When it comes to my fixed investment, I will first check three things: whether the money invested is unused for a long time, whether the position is too concentrated, and whether there is continuous cash flow invested in the future. The budget and holding logic have not changed, and the basic investment will proceed according to the plan. Set conditions and limits in advance for additional positions, so as not to run out of money due to a drop or suddenly catch up with a rebound. Fixed investment can diversify the timing of buying, but it cannot eliminate losses, let alone replace the judgment of assets. Understanding the transmission of interest rate hikes is to know what risks one is taking on, not to find an explanation for every candlestick.
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