Today, I accidentally fell asleep, and now I just woke up. Over the past two days, even though the focus has been on the Federal Reserve, the core of the interest rate adjustments is still the price of oil. Although Trump repeatedly claims that the rise in oil prices is caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, and both sides have announced they won’t attack energy facilities anymore, oil prices remain high. Both major oil benchmarks are still hovering around $100, and the negotiations with Iran and the Gulf, which we had some hope for, have also stalled. At this point, there’s no point in blaming anyone. In my opinion, Iran is the biggest winner here. With a "small rice + rifle" strategy, they’ve managed to hold the world hostage. The global economy is in decline, and although Iran’s domestic situation isn’t great either, a theocratic state can endure this. For now, neither Iran nor the U.S. seems ready to lift the sanctions—it’s just a matter of who caves first. I can’t say for sure about Iran, but the Republican Party is probably going to take a hit during the midterm elections. Recently, Bitcoin has shown a very strong trend, but I still haven’t figured out the reason behind it. The key thing to watch is whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates in September or if the September dot plot turns out to be extremely hawkish. In that case, will bitcoin:native continue to diverge from the U.S. stock market? Because under such circumstances, the chances of the U.S. stock market not dropping are pretty slim. On Tuesday, the $75,000 dual-currency bottom-fishing option will expire, and it’s highly unlikely to be exercised. For now, I’m not planning to buy anything. I’ll wait until after the interest rate meeting and dot plot release at 2 a.m. on Thursday before making any moves. @Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFDs, prediction markets—all in one platform for trading.