Mr. Xiaolong's Today's Perspective ——The Fed's 90% interest rate hike has been priced, will BTC fall first and then rise after FOMC? The most significant event of this week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Wednesday, which can be said to be the global financial community's attention to the Fed's interest rate hike! Let's first talk about the market pricing. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16th has now skyrocketed to nearly 90%! The probability of further interest rate hikes in October has also reached 82%! Wall Street institutions' attitude: overwhelmingly shifting towards interest rate hikes! Out of the 20 institutions compiled by The Wall Street Journal, 16 (80%) are expected to raise interest rates in September. Previously, institutions that held the position of "staying still for the whole year" have also "surrendered" and turned to expected interest rate hikes. Latest predictions from major institutions: Goldman Sachs: shifting from 'unchanged' to expecting a 25 basis point rate hike in September; JPMorgan Chase: Expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December, previously only expected a single rate hike in December; Bank of America: Expected three interest rate hikes in 2026, totaling 75 basis points; Citigroup: Expected to raise interest rates in September, and maintain rates until June 2027 before further rate cuts; Daoming Securities: The most hawkish, expected to add one each in September, October, and January 2027, totaling three times; Market and institutional divergence focus: once or multiple times? Wall Street has basically no disagreement on whether to raise interest rates in September, but the real disagreement has shifted to "how many times to raise interest rates". The mainstream expectation is a cumulative interest rate hike of 50 basis points within the year (i.e. once in September and once in December), with a few institutions predicting 75 basis points or even more. I now believe that interest rate hikes have been highly priced in advance by the market. The market has regarded raising interest rates as a basic certainty. This means: interest rate hike landing=in line with expectations ≈ bearish sentiment exhausted, already digested. Unexpectedly maintaining the same level (10%) can instead trigger drastic fluctuations, as the market has priced interest rate hikes, and staying still is the only surprise. So, the implementation of interest rate hikes may not necessarily be a heavy blow, the real risk lies in the hawkish rhetoric after the rate hike and the subsequent path of interest rate hikes. If there is a rate hike on September 16th (90% probability event), there are three reactions: ① The probability of a bearish rebound (first falling and then rising) is about 55%. Interest rate hike landing → BTC price briefly dips → rebounds. ② The hawkish rhetoric suppresses further decline, with a probability of about 30%. Interest rate hike+hint of continued interest rate hike (82% probability in October) → BTC price continues to decline. ③ Shake digestion, with a probability of about 15%. The key variable is not 'add or not add', but 'wording pigeon eagle'. We need to listen to Walsh's speech on Wednesday, as the price of Bitcoin is bound to fluctuate sharply up and down at this time! We are once again predicting the price trend of Bitcoin: if it falls, where will the target position be The first target is 76000-76500, which is around the low point of 76K after the release of CPI data; Second objective, 75000 to 75500; The third objective is 73500. In extreme cases, the price drops to 71500, which is the 0.5 level retracement of the large cycle Fibonacci retracement, requiring hawkish+confirmation of the October rate hike+resonance with the US stock market. I think the probability of such an extreme decline in the short term is very low, unless a black swan event occurs. So, what are our operations based on the current trend? The current BTC price is around 78500, with a contraction in the 76000-80000 range and FOMC landing. Before FOMC, reduce trading volume and observe, avoid heavy positions, and do not trade for the first 4 hours/last 2 hours. If the Federal Reserve announces a rate hike+neutral wording → stabilizes at 76000-77000, you can go long in batches. If there is a rate hike and hawkishness, wait until 75000 to 73500 stabilizes before going long. Unexpectedly remain unchanged → may experience drastic fluctuations, be cautious. Xiaolong's final perspective: A 90% interest rate hike has been priced, with limited downside potential and a high probability of falling first and then rising (55%). Just now I also posted a four hour candlestick chart of Bitcoin, with four circles indicating that the giant whale is constantly receiving goods around 76K. The real short-term risk is the resonance of "hawks+October interest rate hike", which may lead to BTC prices falling below 73500. However, even if the interest rate hike causes the price of Bitcoin to plummet to around 73500 or even 71K, whales and long-term holders will still continue to take over. So, we should follow the thinking and operational methods of whales and long-term holders, buy big when there is a big drop, buy small when there is a small drop, and adhere to the strategy of holding Bitcoin for the long term. Don't bet on one-sided contracts in front of FOMC, as it can easily lead to losses. The direction of the bull market remains unchanged, interest rate hikes are short-term variables, and pullbacks are opportunities to get on board