看不懂的SOL|Sep 14, 2026 08:11
Brothers, seeing that "80% of institutions expect interest rate hikes in September", do you want to pause fixed investment again and wait for the Federal Reserve to finish its meeting before making a decision?
Let's first understand this number: Currently, out of 20 institutions, 16 are expected to raise interest rates in September. This 80% is the proportion of institutions, not the probability of interest rate hikes, let alone the probability of a decline in the US stock market.
Moreover, everyone's judgment on the later part is not consistent. Some expect a cumulative interest rate hike of 25 basis points throughout the year, some look at 50, and some look at 75. Similarly, with the phrase 'September interest rate hike' written, the understanding of the future funding environment may be far from satisfactory.
For us, what is more important than guessing correctly this time is how long high interest rates will last and whether our assets can digest this pressure.
Borrowing money from enterprises is more expensive, which may affect expansion and profits; As bond yields increase, investors' demands for stock returns will also increase. Even if a technology company's performance grows, its valuation may not necessarily continue to rise. Good companies and good purchase prices should be viewed separately.
But this does not necessarily mean that the interest rate hike will fall on the day it is implemented. If the market is prepared in advance, the final decision may not be more decisive, but rather there may be a rebound. On the other hand, even if there is no interest rate hike, as long as the subsequent statements are tight, the market may not necessarily buy it.
So my investment strategy is to think clearly about the two situations in advance.
If there is an interest rate hike, the basic fixed investment will follow the budget, without stopping due to a single news or increasing indefinitely just because it has fallen. Additional investment depends on drawdown, valuation, and position, and should be arranged in several stages to reserve funds for later use.
If we don't raise interest rates, we won't buy up a few months' budget ahead of schedule just because of a bullish candlestick. Participate according to plan when there is a rise, there is no need to disrupt the original rhythm just to avoid missing out.
There is another question that is closer to oneself than interest rates: how long will this money be unused? Will the income be stable next? If living expenses increase, the investment amount should be adjusted. Regular investment is not a task that must be completed every day, nor is it a way to prove that one is bullish.
Institutions will change their forecasts, and we can also update our judgments. But the adjustment should have a basis, we cannot follow Goldman Sachs today and Morgan tomorrow, and in the end, the account will be filled with other people's opinions.
I am willing to continue buying assets that I understand and accept the possibility of making mistakes in judgment. Keeping cash, controlling positions, and conducting regular reviews are necessary to ensure the continued execution of the plan.
The Federal Reserve decides interest rates, and I decide how much money to bear the fluctuations myself.
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink