A new week, and this week’s main focus is the interest rate meeting. Right now, major institutions are all predicting a rate hike this time, and the market is moving based on expectations. Current conditions show the probability of a rate hike is increasing, but there are also many factors that could prevent it. The pressure is now on Walsh. Previously, I expected Walsh to withstand the pressure, but this time, with oil prices and two rounds of forward-looking data leaning toward rate hike expectations, I’m starting to doubt whether Walsh might actually go for a hike. That said, there are different scenarios for a rate hike. The announcement of the rate hike decision and the statements during the subsequent press conference will have a significant impact. If there’s a 25 basis point hike in September but the possibility of further hikes is downplayed, then the pre-priced downward trend will leave limited room for a rebound. If there’s a 25 basis point hike and the expectation of continued tightening is reinforced, then the market will face sustained pressure. On the other hand, if the pressure is resisted this time and rates are kept unchanged, the market will rebound. However, if the press conference takes a hawkish tone and emphasizes the possibility of delaying future hikes, that will also have an impact. But I think this scenario is very unlikely—if there’s no hike in September, there’s even less chance of one in October (even though oil prices surged in September). So, based on the above and combining it with market trends, I’d say the probability of a bottoming-out rebound versus sustained decline is 6:4. I’m leaning toward finding a low point to bet on a long position. I think Walsh will maintain a hawkish tone but keep actions unchanged.