An interesting paper on the Fed's dot-plot from the Chicago Fed: When the median SEP projection for the fed-funds rate comes in 25 basis points above what Fed watchers expected, market-implied rates (OIS forwards) move only about 5 basis points on the day. "The market’s partial adjustment is consistent with the public understanding that SEP dot plots are conditional assessments, not firm commitments, and that considerable uncertainty is embedded in them." https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2026/527(Nick Timiraos)