2026 Xiong Niu Excessive Series 3- RUL Reveals Changes in Risk Structure The Chinese meaning of STH-RUL is "relative unrealized loss"; The proportion of the current total floating loss of STH to the total market value of BTC. Standardize by market value, as it can be used for cross cycle comparison. I see it as an indicator of 'financial pressure' or 'level of pain'. When the green peak exceeds+2 std (red line), it means that STH is suffering significant losses and the level of pain is soaring. This is usually a signal of entering a bear market. When it exceeds+5 std (purple line), it enters the deep bear phase. Afterwards, the chips continued to change hands at low levels, resulting in a decrease in overall costs and a new low in prices. However, STH-RUL continued to fall from its high level, easing the level of pain. This is a signal of entering a bear tail. When STH-RUL is below -2 std (indicated by the red dashed box in the figure), we can basically assume that the market has emerged from the deep bear market. Afterwards, the risk structure reset and the market entered a "bear bull transition period". From the past two cycles, there have been significant fluctuations during the transition period of 19-20 years, while 23 years have been noticeably milder. The difference can be seen using STH-RUL: In the past 20 years, the level of pain has once again skyrocketed to+2 std, or even above+5 std. And the highest in 23 years only exceeded -1 Std (green line). If it were the situation in 2023, I think it would be difficult for those who venture into the air to get on the car later. Because everyone's expectations are based on 20 years, hoping to wait for a deep comeback before getting on the car. I won't even consider the 'shallow drawdown' of March and June of 2023. The longer we wait, the higher the price becomes, and in the end, the rhythm is completely disrupted, and even the whole round is sold out. Similarly, the market's expectations for this cycle will also take 23 years as a reference. This is normal, but what is important is: Your expectations should at least not be lower than the market average, and even higher. There is no need to deliberately pursue perfection, vague correctness is also possible. At this stage, the risk of "stepping into the air" is actually much higher than the risk of "being trapped".