I basically think the probability of Anthropic or OpenAI slowing down frontier development in any meaningful way is 0%. And most of the 'regulation' they're trying to push is regulatory capture aimed at slowing down competitors. 1. Anthropic/OpenAI won’t voluntarily hand over their lead to Gemini, xAI, Meta, or other frontier labs. -> Elon will want to slow things down to catch up with OpenAI. -> OpenAI will want a regulatory framework to slow down xAI + competitors. Every lab has the incentive to support rules that constrain competitors more while constraining themselves less. 2. The U.S. won’t meaningfully slow down frontier AI development while China continues to make progress (as seen in Trump’s post today about rejecting AI slowdowns). If China surpasses the U.S. in capabilities, it could very well become the biggest national security risk—especially since both sides are calling frontier AI capabilities 'cyber nukes.' 3. China won’t slow down frontier AI development. That’s for sure. If any party publicly agrees to slow down, it’s just for show, because behind the scenes: -> They’re likely continuing to push forward, whether it’s OpenAI, the U.S. government, or China. If they wanted to slow down, they could’ve done so at any time: yet everyone is still scrambling for scarce resources to run AI, as seen in things like Samsung memory procurement deals stretching all the way to 2031. Or NVDA / AVGO supply constraints protecting 70-100%+ Y/Y growth. So I suggest people stop following those clowns on X who predict AI stocks like NVDA, TSM, or $MU will crash just to get attention. This only causes short-term panic among retail investors and hands the kingdom’s keys to others.