Bitcoin Sell Signals - Elevated Stocks, Fed Hikes It's a highly volatile and speculative digital asset, correlated with the stock market and now burdened by being beta for millions of crypto companions. Bitcoin's performance has roughly matched the S&P 500 over the past five years, yet the first-born crypto trades with almost 3x the volatility. By the rules of risk and portfolio management -- that's a dud. Launched during the Great Recession in 2009, Bitcoin has led the way up for risk assets and may now be leading the way back down. My graphic highlights three reasons the crypto could fall: its recent bounce to $80,000 resistance, fed funds futures in one year (FF13-FF1) pricing 70 bps of hikes, and the stretched S&P 500 vs. its 200-week moving average. Bitcoin fits into my stock-puppet category due to its high correlation with the SPX, especially when beta declines, and its position as the first cryptocurrency now competing with millions of others. Bitcoin may be tracking toward its enduring pivot around $10,000, and one simple factor could get it there -- about a 20% drawdown in the SPX that persists for a while, as has happened historically. Proving that scenario wrong may require the crypto to sustain divergent strength. On the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tl6ztckijh9p {BI COMD} #Bitcoin #cryptos #stockmarket @BBGIntelligence(Mike McGlone)