Big news! FOMC is coming up soon, let me share the views of a macroeconomics expert: Fed: Before the election, they’ll be 'hawkish in words, dovish in action,' but the real risk lies after the election. Market expectations have shifted from three rate cuts at the start of the year to three rate hikes, with about a 60% implied probability of a hike in September. However, the expert predicts no rate hikes in September or October. The reasoning? Political and election pressures, plus the U.S. struggling to bear the burden of rising debt interest. After the election, it’s highly likely the Democrats will take both the House and Senate, while the Republicans face major losses, which could be bearish for risk assets: lawsuits, Trump impeachment, Walsh split, and Democratic Congress obstructing fiscal policies. U.S. Economy: Government-driven investment can also lead to a long-term bull market. Compare the 'proactive government' era of 1942–1965 with the 'efficient market' era of 1980–2000. During the 'proactive government' period, even with high tax rates and strong government intervention, the Dow still saw long-term growth. Historical examples like highways, the moon landing, and the internet show that government investment in infrastructure and technology can drive growth. When evaluating U.S. assets, you have to factor in national strategy and the power of government investment. Dollar: The cost of stimulating the economy through high deficits is long-term depreciation pressure. The annual deficit increase is about $1.95 trillion, with interest costs around $1.25 trillion. The government wants to maintain spending and stimulate the economy while carrying heavy debt. So, the U.S. will seek more external income on the revenue side and find ways to ease debt repayment on the liability side—'global plundering' and 'starting to default.' This fiscal approach will impact the dollar exchange rate, leading to long-term dollar weakness.