I see a lot of takes akin to "the Fed shouldn't hike into a supply shock, they should ease" but this is a lot more than an energy shock from Iran. Rising strategic investment and the AI capex boom with sovereign backstop are HUGE factors in inflationary pressure. Those won't be helped in any way at all by cutting rates, they would arguably accelerate, especially with the labor market actively tightening from a historically low breakeven growth rate. I'm not sure the "look thru supply shocks" mantra really fits here at all. Consider how loose FCI is already amidst 6%+ deficits, then imagine if they fucking eased LOL.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)