Speculators vs. Energy Inflation or Autocorrelation The front heating oil future (HO1) has bumped up near its 2022 high, and hedge funds don't seem to care, but the Federal Reserve, politicians, consumers and the US Treasury 10-year might. My graphic highlights same-chart syndrome between HO1, at $4.96 a gallon on Sept. 11, and the 10-year at 4.97% -- about its highest month-end yield since 2007. Can these lofty levels be sustained into year-end, and what are the repercussions? My bias leans to unlikely, notably due to the inflation implications, expectations for Fed rate hikes and political pressures ahead of the midterm elections. Managed-money net longs are about 11% of petroleum futures open interest vs. the 2022 peak near 16%. Are hedge funds underestimating the potential for more energy inflation? Muy bias leans to unlikely and more common autocorrelation forces. On the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tl1iu3kgzaip {BI COMD} #heatingoil #diesel #bonds #futures @BBGIntelligence(Mike McGlone)