THIS IS CONCERNING Despite the Fed's new Zero Forward Guidance policy, the CME market is presenting a whopping 87.3% probability for a 25 bps rate hike. If they raise with 25 BPS, we could be facing further dump on the stock and crypto market. This would further drive US long-term yields higher. The US30Y is now at 2007 levels pre-Great Financial Crisis yield levels. My opinion remains the same: if they go through with rate hikes, they risk a systemic failure building up for the future. The financial market is a house of cards built on leverage in the derivatives market. If you raise rates to combat inflation, you risk a crash on the horizon a black swan event. It's not only the US national debt at $40T; every institutional investor borrowing money from and holding each other's hands will start to feel the interest rate pressure. A 25 bps rate hike wouldn't crash the economy. However, it would signal that the Fed is hawkish and determined to fight inflation. With the Iran-US war going on, inflation won't come down easily, since energy prices dictate a large portion of inflation. Brent crude oil is back up to $106, which will drive prices up for everything. This is my opinion and not financial advice.(Seth)