看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|9月 12, 2026 10:21
Brothers, the US stock market rebounded on Friday, but after watching this week, I want to remind myself even more: don't change all the plans prepared a few days ago just because of one day's rise. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.86%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.96%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.98%. The closing looks good, but while the stock market is recovering, the 10-year US Treasury yield is still around 4.97%, and interest rate pressure has not disappeared. This is also something worth pondering about this market trend: why can stocks rise despite the pressure of inflation? The market does not revolve around just one number. The overall CPI is close to expectations, without giving the market another obvious surprise; The decline in oil prices has also eased some concerns. Stocks that have already fallen may naturally attract buying interest. But based solely on a one-day increase, it is still unclear whether this is a short-term recovery or the beginning of a new trend. Moreover, overall and core data cannot be viewed together. In August, the overall CPI increased by 0.4% month on month, while the core CPI increased by 0.3% month on month, which was higher than the previous expectation of 0.2%. Just because overall expectations are met, it cannot be understood that inflation has already passed. Whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next or not is certainly important. But for the fixed investment, what I am more concerned about is whether I have the ability to continue executing regardless of the outcome. If we raise interest rates, I will first look at how much the market has digested before and what the Federal Reserve has to say about the future path. Basic fixed investment is carried out according to the budget, with additional warehouses arranged in batches, so as not to invest all the cash at once just because of the "negative landing". If there is no interest rate hike, it does not mean an immediate shift towards easing. If the stock price rises rapidly, I won't rush to use up the budget for the next few months ahead of schedule; If the market declines due to subsequent statements, first identify the reasons and then decide whether to adjust. For me, the role of cash reserves is to prevent myself from guessing correctly every time. There will be no sudden increase or collapse due to insufficient positions, leaving room for normal living, continuous investment, and misjudgment. What is suitable for doing on weekends is to check how much can be invested next month, whether there is excessive concentration of positions, and whether the conditions for additional investment are clearly stated. When the price rises, don't complain that your plan is too slow; Don't overthink your risk tolerance when it's falling. Rather than judging the first candlestick next week, I would rather look back a few months later and realize that I didn't make the heaviest decision when my emotions were at their peak.
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