The case for a 25bp Fed hike is getting stronger. Core CPI accelerated to 0.3% MoM vs 0.2% expected — inflation isn’t cooling fast enough. Meanwhile, the economy isn’t asking for cuts: 📈 Payrolls +162K vs +56K expected 💼 Unemployment 4.1% (steady) 🏭 ISM Services 55.4 (economy expands strongly) Sticky inflation + resilient growth = room to tighten. Much of the inflation pressure is energy-driven. 🛢️ That makes geopolitics the big swing factor: solving the Hormuz problem could ease this oil-induced inflation.(Gert van Lagen)