[Institution: U.S. CPI Exceeds Expectations, Rate Hike Becomes a 'Mandatory Option'] Golden Finance reported on September 12 that a research report from Huatai Securities stated that the higher-than-expected month-on-month core inflation in August has made a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve a 'mandatory option,' with the credibility risk of not raising rates in September further increasing. Following the significantly better-than-expected non-farm payrolls in August and the rise in oil prices above $100 driven by escalating Middle East tensions, the August CPI data has become the key variable for the market to price whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in September. The higher-than-expected month-on-month increase in core inflation for August, coupled with the lack of further slowdown in the core services ex-housing component closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, has added to inflationary pressures. Additionally, factors such as elevated oil prices amid low inventory levels, the downstream transmission of AI-driven price hikes, and localized new rounds of tariffs may disrupt the process of U.S. inflation cooling. Looking ahead, the CPI data may push neutral voting members like Waller to adopt a hawkish stance at the September FOMC meeting, reducing internal resistance within the Federal Reserve to a rate hike in September. The August data has also 'cleared the way' for a rate hike. If Waller fails to deliver on his hawkish commitments made at the August Jackson Hole meeting, the Federal Reserve's credibility will face greater challenges, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields will become even harder to control. (Jin10)