IEA materially worsened its outlook, now expecting the war to last into next year at least. If companies and governments begin planning for Hormuz disruptions lasting >1 year instead of just months, then things like Saudi east-west capacity, UAE Fujairah, Iraqi Mediterranean pipelines, Red Sea ports, regional rail, alternative LNG supply, and integrated air/missile defense become strategic infrastructure projects instead of wartime contingencies. And that erodes Iran's long term chokepoint leverage even while its shorter term leverage remains enormous. People don't want to admit there may be a plan underneath all the apparent chaos, but I would argue differently.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)