**[Bitunix Analyst: U.S. Treasury Yields Near 5%, Buybacks Struggle Against Inflation and Capital Demand]** BlockBeats News, September 12 – The U.S. Treasury market continues to face selling pressure, with the 10-year yield rising to around 4.94% and the 30-year yield briefly touching 5.35%, indicating that the market's pricing of a high-interest-rate environment is still deepening. Even though the Treasury Department raised the cap on long-term Treasury buybacks to $6 billion, it only purchased $5.19 billion in practice, and yields continued to climb. This reflects that while policy operations can improve liquidity, they struggle to counteract the structural pressures of inflation, fiscal deficits, and long-term capital demand. The rise in oil prices has further exacerbated this contradiction. Higher energy costs could reignite inflation expectations, prompting investors to increase bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes in advance. Currently, market expectations for a rate hike have risen to 71%, meaning that even before the release of the CPI data, the bond market has already begun to reflect a tighter policy trajectory. The real key, therefore, is not just the inflation data for a single month but whether the market believes that pressures from energy, tariffs, and supply chains will cause underlying inflation to lose its downward momentum again. On the other hand, the capital expenditure boom driven by AI infrastructure is also reshaping long-term bond pricing. Companies are issuing large amounts of debt to compete for funding, meaning that the U.S. government is no longer the sole demander of capital. When capital flows simultaneously to both the government and corporations, it becomes even harder for the Treasury Department's buybacks alone to suppress long-term rates. Druckenmiller even argues that, given the current level of capital expenditure and competition for funds, U.S. Treasury yields are "actually a bit low," highlighting that some investors already view this round of rate increases as driven by fundamentals rather than mere market sentiment. Thus, the real issue facing U.S. Treasuries is not how much the Treasury Department can buy but how much yield the market demands to absorb long-term U.S. debt. If the CPI comes in hot, rate hike expectations and long-term yields could further reinforce each other; if the CPI cools, the market will need to reassess whether high yields can retreat. The core of this game has gradually shifted from whether policy can influence the market to whether policy can counteract the fundamentals.