金十数据|Sep 11, 2026 20:19
On September 12th, according to a recent article by Nick Timiraos, the spokesperson for the Federal Reserve, investors have basically concluded that the Fed will raise interest rates for the first time in three years next week. The more difficult question is what will happen next. Due to the fact that almost no one within the Federal Reserve believes that a single 25 basis point interest rate hike is enough to lower inflation, if a decision is made to raise interest rates next week, it will reflect a previous judgment that interest rates were at an incorrect level, and a single rate hike cannot solve the problem. Since the 1990s, the Federal Reserve has only raised interest rates once. In July, Walsh stated that he did not believe the Federal Reserve was good at "fine-tuning". Analysts said that a chairman who was skeptical of fine-tuning was unlikely to announce the completion of the task after raising interest rates by 25 basis points. Walsh stated last month that there is not much evidence to suggest that lending conditions are limiting economic activity. If this reason is used to push for interest rate hikes, the market will naturally ask how high the interest rate needs to rise. If there is a lack of explanation, the market may interpret a rate hike as the beginning of a larger scale action. Therefore, investors no longer consider the September meeting as a single meeting issue this week. The market currently expects at least three cumulative interest rate hikes by June next year, higher than the previously estimated two.
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