Let me share my personal opinion, but that doesn’t mean what I say is absolutely correct. First of all, even back in the Powell era, during April and May when the U.S. and Iran had just gone to war, oil prices were higher than they are now, and inflation was consistently rebounding. Yet, even the tough Fed officials of the Powell era didn’t choose to raise interest rates, because everyone knew the rise in oil prices was limited. Once the U.S.-Iran conflict was resolved, oil prices would drop. Looking at this August’s inflation data, there hasn’t actually been any increase. Of course, the key focus is still on core PCE, but the CPI and core CPI data also tell a story. It’s clear that CPI is flat, and core CPI has slightly declined. Even without looking at August’s data, core PCE hasn’t risen either. So, in my opinion, the probability of the Fed proactively raising interest rates when inflation hasn’t risen—without forward guidance—is quite low. To put it simply, inflation was higher during Powell’s time, and they didn’t raise rates then. Now that inflation is declining, the reasoning for raising rates seems a bit far-fetched. Of course, I think there’s another possibility: using the dot plot to scare the market and, at the same time, letting Trump know the consequences of his actions. @Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFD, prediction markets—all-in-one trading platform.