The probability of interest rate hike is close to 90%. Bitcoin: Why has native increased instead? Many people's first reaction when they see CPI trending and the probability of interest rate hikes increasing is that BTC should continue to decline, but the market trading is never about whether it is "good or bad", but the gap between the actual results and the funds' advance bets. After the data was released, BTC first fell from around 77000 to 76200, and then quickly pulled back to 78000, indicating that this rise has three main logical layers. Firstly, the bearish sentiment has already been traded in advance. In the past few days, employment, PPI, and oil prices have continuously pushed up expectations of interest rate hikes, and BTC has also fallen from 81500 to around 76000. The market did not wait for the release of CPI to know about the possibility of interest rate hikes, and a large amount of funds have already reduced their positions to avoid risks. After the data was released, although the probability of interest rate hikes continued to rise, there were no major surprises. In the early stage, bears began to take profits, and off exchange funds took over, forming a typical "kill long first, then push short" pattern. Secondly, the CPI is relatively hot, but not completely out of control. The overall CPI increased by 0.4% month on month, while the core CPI increased by 0.3% month on month, which indeed increases the necessity of raising interest rates in September. However, housing and food inflation continue to decline, and the main pressure still comes from energy. This means that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates once, but it may not necessarily restart a continuous cycle of rate hikes. The market is never afraid of a single 25 basis point hike, but of a second or third hike after one. Thirdly, the bond market has given a more important signal. After the release of CPI, the two-year US Treasury yield increased, indicating that the market is trading short-term interest rate hikes; But the ten-year yield has actually fallen, indicating that funds do not believe that long-term inflation will completely spiral out of control. Simply put, it means being more eagle in the short term, but not necessarily more eagle in the long term. This has given the US stock market and BTC room for rebound, and also triggered short-term short selling of BTC. But I have to remind you that a rise does not mean that the bearish sentiment disappears. This wave is more like the expected technical repair after hitting full capacity, and cannot be directly defined as a reversal. The next 78000-80000 is the first pressure, and the true strength still depends on whether 80000-82000 can regain its footing. Unable to stand up, this is short covering; Only after standing firm can one have the qualification to discuss all the negative aspects.