看不懂的SOL|Sep 11, 2026 08:40
Brothers, tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the US August CPI will be released, and the US stock market and gold will face another round of inflation test.
What I am more concerned about this time is not where the first candlestick will go after the announcement, but whether the data will change the market's judgment of interest rates.
To look at the data, first distinguish two things: year-on-year look at how much it has increased in the past year, and month on month look at the changes in the past month. The year-on-year decline does not necessarily mean that the recent price pressure has eased, but may also be affected by last year's base.
So tonight, in addition to the overall CPI, I will focus on the core month on month ratio and then break down the housing and service sub items. The meaning of whether energy drives overall price fluctuations or broader price pressures is different.
Possible reactions can be anticipated in advance, but do not treat them as inevitable scripts:
If both the overall and core are significantly higher than expected, the market may raise expectations for maintaining high interest rates, and the US dollar and bond yields may strengthen, putting pressure on US stocks and gold.
If both are lower than expected, interest rate pressure may ease, providing some support for US stocks and gold. But gold is also affected by real interest rates, the US dollar, and safe haven demand, and it is not necessarily an increase as soon as CPI decreases.
The most confusing thing is whether the overall trend is hot, the core trend is cold, or the numbers are basically in line with expectations. At this point, we need to look at the sub items and how much the market has already traded in advance.
20: At 30, we will first observe the reactions of stock index futures, US bonds, US dollars, and gold, and then at 21:30, we will see if the US stock market can continue after opening. The first jump or dive may not necessarily be the final direction for tonight.
For someone like me who is a regular investor, the data is worth looking at, but there is no need to overturn the long-term plan every time it is released. If you really want to do short-term trading, you should also think about your position and exit conditions before announcing, instead of waiting for the price to move and then finding reasons at the last minute.
Tonight, let's first examine the data and then see how the market understands it. Seizing a few seconds less doesn't necessarily mean earning less; After reading incorrectly, rushing to flip through the pages can easily turn a data night into a protracted battle.
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