Deutsche Bank's Chief European Economist Mark Wall believes that inflation risks continue to rise, and the likelihood of another rate hike in December has surpassed that of no hike. Market pricing is more aggressive, with the probability of a rate hike in October estimated at around 49%, rising to 89% by the end of the year. However, the increase in natural gas prices simultaneously poses a negative supply shock: in the short term, it drives up energy, transportation, and commodity prices, forcing the European Central Bank to guard against secondary inflation. As corporate costs and residents' real purchasing power come under pressure, subsequent growth may weaken. Europe is entering a policy window of 'inflation rising first, growth declining later.' Rate hikes will initially lift short-term interest rates but may not necessarily sustain support for the euro and long-term yields.