Phyrex|Sep 11, 2026 06:09
Shanghai crude oil futures surged over 20% in September, and Asia is bearing higher oil supply costs.
Since September, Shanghai crude oil futures have risen by approximately 22%, reaching nearly $110 per barrel when converted to USD. Brent crude has also climbed to around $100 per barrel, but Shanghai crude is rising faster, with the price gap between the two widening to about $10 per barrel.
Unlike most countries, China's crude oil price increase isn't directly caused by the Hormuz Strait closure itself, but rather by the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports following Iran's closure of Hormuz.
Previously cheaper Iranian crude saw a significant supply reduction due to the blockade, forcing Chinese refineries to seek alternative sources, including Russia, Brazil, Canada, and Africa. However, these crude supplies already have other buyers, and as China ramps up purchases, competition among buyers intensifies, driving up the prices of substitute crude oil as well.
This means the impact of Hormuz extends to other oil-producing countries. Even if these countries aren't involved in the conflict or don't transport oil through Hormuz, the concentration of buyers seeking alternatives makes it difficult to maintain original price levels.
Transportation is also affected. To avoid high-risk areas in the Middle East, shipowners and refineries need to adjust sourcing and shipping arrangements. Some supplies now require longer routes, increasing freight costs and extending delivery times. Ultimately, refineries face rising crude oil prices, transportation costs, and delivery risks all at once.
In my personal view, the high premium of Shanghai crude over Brent reflects growing market concerns about Asian supply. China can alleviate some pressure through stockpiles, but if import gaps are long-term and rely heavily on inventory, there will still be challenges with replenishment and procurement costs later on.
As long as transportation through Hormuz doesn't see substantial improvement, Asia will continue to pay higher costs to secure alternative supplies.
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