Warsh's Jackson Hole speech convinced investors a rate hike was more likely but didn't tell them what would trigger one. Markets filled the gap and are now pricing a hike Warsh never promised. Which leaves Friday's inflation report viewed as the thing that will authorize or block a rate hike, the kind of decision-making Warsh has spent years arguing against. "This is the market testing you. This is the 'double-dog' daring you. This is straight schoolyard," says Vincent Reinhart, a former senior Fed economist.(Nick Timiraos)