The real big pressure ahead for Bitcoin might not be retail bag holders, but Wall Street's 'cost basis.' At one point, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had unrealized losses as high as $18 billion. But with BTC's strong rebound, the entire ETF holdings are now rapidly approaching break-even. This signifies something very important: The average cost basis for institutions is becoming the key resistance Bitcoin must break through next. Why? Because after a long period of being underwater, once the price returns to the cost level, we could see selling pressure from break-even exits, position reductions, and capital reallocation. But on the flip side— If BTC can truly break through and hold above the ETF's overall cost basis, what was once the 'institutional bag holder zone' could flip from resistance to support. Even more importantly, ETF holdings worth tens of billions of dollars would return to a profitable state, and the market structure would be completely different. So, what I’m watching closely next isn’t any specific moving average. It’s this: Can BTC break through Wall Street’s cost basis? Before the breakthrough, it’s resistance. After the breakthrough, it could become the most critical support for the next rally. The true dividing line between bulls and bears is here.