If Bitcoin's four-year cycle fails, all those 'historically scary accurate' indicators you're seeing might fail too. This famous Bitcoin Rainbow Chart looks absolutely perfect. For the past decade or so, Bitcoin has almost always moved within this rainbow channel: Bitcoin Dead Fire Sale Accumulate HOLD FOMO Max Bubble But the biggest problem is: This curve itself was retrofitted using 'historical prices that already happened.' It’s like knowing the answer first, then drawing a curve that perfectly explains the answer. This is a classic case of Overfitting. Past performance ≠ Future performance. Especially when Bitcoin's market structure is undergoing massive changes: ETFs, institutional money, corporate treasuries, derivatives markets, global liquidity... If even the core idea of 'halving = four-year cycle' gradually becomes invalid, then valuation models, top/bottom indicators, and time-based patterns built on past cycles all need to be re-examined. The most dangerous mindset in the market isn’t: 'This time is different.' It’s: 'This has always happened before, so it must happen again this time.' When predicting Bitcoin’s future, instead of constantly asking: 'How many months since the halving?' Start paying attention to: Global liquidity, cost of capital, spot demand, institutional allocation, on-chain holdings, and market leverage. You can use history to look for patterns, but never treat historical patterns as a guaranteed script for the future. Bitcoin has no obligation to follow the rainbow we’ve drawn for it.