Aberdeen economist Felix Feather says an ECB rate rise this month is "all but certain," but markets will watch whether the bank’s language frames the move as a single step or part of an ongoing tightening cycle. Feather expects a hawkish tone, citing stronger-than-expected eurozone resilience, elevated energy prices, firmer forward-looking wage indicators and slightly higher market inflation expectations as reasons policymakers will focus on upside risks. He adds the war’s economic hit has been smaller than feared, so the ECB may lift growth forecasts, yet rates could remain around 2.5% for an extended period after Thursday’s meeting. Core inflation is easing and wage pressure remains relatively contained, with only scattered signs of second-round effects from the energy shock; stabilizing energy markets may require US‑Iran de-escalation, which currently appears unlikely.(金十数据)