[Bitunix Analyst: CPI Misses by Just 0.1 Percentage Points, Fed and U.S. Treasury Face Simultaneous Policy Pressure] BlockBeats News, September 10 – Market attention is highly focused on the August CPI report to be released this Friday. A core CPI monthly increase of 0.2% or 0.3% could directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions in September. Currently, market expectations for a rate hike have risen from 35% before Waller's speech to about 60%, indicating that investors have already priced in a more hawkish policy scenario. If inflation cools significantly, the Fed would still have reasons to wait; however, if the data comes in hot, questions will resurface about whether the summer's inflation improvement was merely a short-term phenomenon, and Waller's room to maintain rates unchanged will narrow significantly. The real challenge is not the data for a single month but the multiple supply-side pressures underlying inflation. The situation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices close to $100 per barrel, and new tariffs and AI infrastructure's strain on supply chains could also lead to renewed price pressures. Therefore, the market needs to assess not just whether 'August CPI is high or low,' but whether underlying inflation remains above the range acceptable to the Fed. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury market is also testing the limits of the Treasury Department's policy tools. The Treasury has raised the long-term bond buyback cap to $6 billion, but the 10-year yield has still climbed to around 4.85%, indicating that while buybacks can improve some liquidity and maturity structures, they are insufficient to offset fiscal deficits, massive issuance needs, and rate hike expectations. When the market no longer simply trusts policy signals but instead reverts to pricing based on fundamentals, the Treasury can influence the pace of trading but may not determine the equilibrium yield. Thus, the true key in September is no longer a single CPI figure but whether inflation, energy, and fiscal pressures collectively extend the high-interest-rate cycle. If CPI is weak, U.S. Treasuries and risk assets may get some breathing room; if CPI is hot, expectations of Fed rate hikes and long-term yields could further reinforce each other, putting greater pressure on financial conditions.