CL crude oil is seriously strong. This pullback didn’t even truly break below 90.8, and now it’s climbing back up for another test. First target here is 97. If 97 breaks decisively, the next stop is 100. Recently, Hormuz shipping volumes remain noticeably low, and the Middle East conflict continues to create uncertainty on the oil supply side. According to Reuters, Brent has climbed back near $100, and the market is starting to reprice the persistent supply risks. So, if oil prices continue to hold at high levels, CPI/PCE will have a hard time coming down comfortably. The Fed is already in a wait-and-see mode on inflation. In the latest Reuters survey, most economists still expect rates to remain unchanged in September, but the number of people supporting at least one more hike this year is increasing. Strong employment + rising oil prices are giving hawks more ammunition. So right now, I’m watching two tracks: Technical: 90.8 hold → 97 → 100 Macro: Oil continues to rise → Inflation expectations increase → U.S. Treasury yields/USD strengthen → Risk assets come under pressure If crude oil really breaks above 100 and sustains it, it will become the core variable for the next phase of the market’s repricing of inflation and high rates. Risk assets like crypto need to be cautious.