Has the market already priced in the rate hikes by the US and Japan? After the hikes are announced, will it be a case of 'bad news priced in, short-term rally, then mid-to-long-term decline due to reduced liquidity'? Or is the market currently luring buyers in, only to drop directly after the announcement? Here's how I see it: Right now, the market has priced in about 60% of the US rate hike. If the CPI data comes out and the probability remains unchanged, it means the market hasn’t fully priced it in, and the rate hike announcement will lead to an initial drop. If the CPI data shifts the probability significantly in one direction, the market will quickly close the pricing gap before the 9/16 FOMC meeting. If the US doesn’t hike rates, the market’s first reaction will likely be a short squeeze rally. However, long-term rates will rise to compensate for the Fed not hiking, and those chasing the rally will probably get trapped. As for Japan, the market has fully priced in a September rate hike. The exchange rate of 160-153 reflects this pricing. After the hike is announced, the market will adjust based on whether there’s a possibility of another hike in January. The real liquidity drain in Q4 will likely come from Anthropic’s IPO in October, followed by OpenAI and SpaceX’s post-Q3 earnings release, which will unlock 1.3 billion shares, as well as the hundreds of billions in quarterly AI corporate bonds. @BITstocks_CN Buy US stocks on BIT, with access to 10,000+ US stocks and ETFs, real holdings, and dividend payouts. #Investing #Finance #Crypto https://bitstocks.cn