BitUnix analyst: Energy, finance, and global funds are intertwined, and the Federal Reserve's policy space faces multiple constraints BlockBeats News: On September 9th, the escalating situation in the Middle East pushed Brent crude oil to approach $100 per barrel, reigniting market concerns about energy supply and inflation. If energy prices remain high, they will be transmitted to core inflation through transportation, manufacturing, and refined oil prices, making the Federal Reserve face a more complex policy environment. This also increases the importance of CPI and PPI this week, as the market is not only concerned about whether inflation has cooled down, but also whether energy prices have regained new inflationary stickiness. The US Treasury is under another layer of structural pressure. The US fiscal deficit, $40 trillion in debt, and the financing needs of AI companies continue to push up long-term funding costs, and the upcoming US Treasury bond repurchase scale is therefore receiving attention. However, repurchases mainly improve the supply-demand structure of specific maturities and are difficult to change the huge fiscal deficit and long-term financing demand, so their impact on long-term yields is still limited. In other words, buybacks can improve market liquidity but cannot solve fiscal supply. Japan has increased the uncertainty of global capital allocation. The intervention of the Japanese yen and the decline in overseas securities holdings have triggered market attention on whether Japan will sell some US bonds; If the yen continues to appreciate, the approximately $23.5 billion yen bears may also face pressure to replenish. If the Bank of Japan further raises interest rates and increases incentives for capital inflows, global bond allocation may be readjusted, further affecting long-term demand for US bonds. On the Russian Ukrainian side, the diplomatic process between the United States and Russia is still advancing, but military actions have not stopped. Ukraine continues to supplement its air defense capabilities, indicating that geopolitical risks have not yet been resolved. Overall, the Middle East affects energy and inflation, Russia and Ukraine affect supply chains and energy security, Japan affects global capital allocation, while the United States affects financial conditions through interest rates and debt management. Therefore, what is truly worth observing about CPI, PPI, and the scale of US bond repurchases is whether the high interest rate environment will loosen due to the cooling of inflation, or be stretched by the combined supply and demand of energy, finance, and global funds.