[Oil Prices Near $100, Strategist Warns Fed May Repeat 2008 Mistake if Rates Are Raised] BlockBeats News, September 9: As oil prices approach $100 per barrel again, Wellington Altus Chief Market Strategist James Thorne has warned that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates amid an energy supply shock, it could repeat the policy mistakes made before the 2008 financial crisis by misjudging rising energy prices as overheating economic demand. Thorne stated that while rising energy prices do drive inflation higher, they simultaneously weaken consumer purchasing power and drag down economic growth. If the Fed tightens financial conditions further to demonstrate its commitment to fighting inflation, it may instead exacerbate economic downturn risks. He believes the current policy environment bears similarities to the period before the 2008 crisis, when the Fed overly focused on inflation risks from energy prices but underestimated the economic impact of high energy costs. Recently, WTI crude oil has risen over 20% in a month, while Brent crude oil has climbed more than 18%. Meanwhile, a New York Fed survey shows that U.S. consumers' outlook on household financial conditions has further deteriorated, with the probability of unemployment rising to 44.4% over the next year—the highest since April 2020. The Federal Reserve is set to hold its policy meeting on September 15-16, having kept rates unchanged for five consecutive sessions. The market is currently focused on the U.S. August PPI and CPI data to be released this week to assess whether the energy shock will prompt the Fed to reconsider rate hikes. [Original Link]