**[The Higher the Yen Rises, the More Japanese Retail Investors Short It: $23.5 Billion in Short Positions Could Fuel Further Gains]** BlockBeats News, September 9 — Bloomberg compiled data from the Japan Financial Futures Association and the Tokyo Financial Exchange, revealing that as of last week, Japanese individual investors held net short positions in the yen amounting to approximately ¥3.61 trillion (around $23.5 billion), an increase from August. In July, this figure reached ¥4.41 trillion, the highest since 2015. Japanese retail investors have long exhibited a contrarian trading habit of "selling when the yen rises and buying when the yen falls." However, as the yen continues to strengthen, these short positions are facing increasing pressure to close. Mizuho Bank strategist Masayuki Nakajima stated that if the yen appreciates further, some retail investors may be forced to close their long dollar positions—selling dollars and buying yen—which could amplify the yen's upward momentum. Betting on yen strength has also intensified in the options market. According to CME Group data, the most actively traded USD/JPY option on Tuesday was a November-expiry put option with a strike price of 142.86. The trading volume of USD/JPY put options expiring by year-end exceeded that of call options by a factor of three. The market is currently betting on USD/JPY falling to the 150–152 range, with some 12-month options even speculating a drop to 140. Meanwhile, Wall Street remains divided on the yen's future trajectory. Some strategists believe the Bank of Japan has limited room for further rate hikes and that USD/JPY nearing 150 may encounter policy resistance. Other institutions argue that if the Bank of Japan signals further tightening measures and Japanese exporters accelerate repatriation of overseas funds, the yen could still appreciate further. The market's focus is now shifting to the policy paths of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. If the yen continues to rise, Japanese retail investors' massive long dollar and short yen positions could transform from a force suppressing the yen into fuel for its upward movement as positions are closed. [Original Link]