PANews
PANews|Sep 09, 2026 01:41
[The 10-Year Rolling Return of Long-Term U.S. Treasury Bonds Over the Past Decade is -2%, the Worst Level in Over 100 Years] According to Reuters, U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with the fiscal deficit accounting for approximately 6% of GDP. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is approaching 5%, yet the overall bond market is still considered to be 'aligned with fundamentals.' The report highlights that the nominal economic growth rate in the U.S. is around 6%, the unemployment rate is approximately 4.1%, and inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for nearly six consecutive years. Against the backdrop of AI investments and expanding fiscal deficits, investors demanding higher interest rate compensation is deemed reasonable. Although the 10-year rolling return of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds over the past decade is -2%, one of the worst performances in a century, volatility indicators such as the MOVE index are below recent averages, and the reduction in holdings by foreign central banks has been gradual and non-panic-inducing. Some institutions believe that the current yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is even undervalued within their valuation models, and the bond market as a whole is viewed as operating normally under the new higher interest rate environment.
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