Quick recap on trading operations: Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, macro analysis Two more days until 9/11 when August CPI data will be released. The forecasted value looks relatively optimistic. If the data matches expectations, then the September rate hike expectations will weaken, or at least not continue to rise. This would give $BTC and U.S. stocks some breathing room. If the data comes in below expectations, that’s bullish news. September rate hike expectations could drop below 50%, and $BTC and U.S. stocks would get a boost. But if the data exceeds expectations, then September rate hike expectations might rise above 70%, which would be bearish for risk markets. Even if CPI data matches or falls below expectations, which would be positive, we still need to watch oil prices. If oil prices stay in the $92-$93 range or even higher, then even if there’s no rate hike in September, Powell’s speech will likely remain hawkish for Q4. If CPI data matches or falls below expectations *and* oil prices drop, that would be the best-case scenario. So, For $BTC, if you’re shorting now, you’re essentially betting that CPI will exceed expectations and oil prices won’t drop, or might even continue to rise. At the current $785 Bitcoin price, the risk-reward isn’t great. Ideally, shorting above $81 before the non-farm payroll data comes out would be a better move. Back when it was near $81-$82, it was at the upper edge of the $585-$81 bottom consolidation range since the February dip. The price had an advantage, and there was still time before the FOMC meeting, so there’d be some pullback. But I didn’t act because I was worried the non-farm payroll data might turn out to be bullish, which would lead to losses. Turns out the non-farm payroll data was bearish, and the price dropped 3,000 points to around $785. At this point, shorting doesn’t have as much of a price advantage anymore. So, would you dare to short? On the flip side, if you’re going long now, you’re essentially betting that CPI will match or fall below expectations, and oil prices won’t break the $92-$93 range and might even drop. Currently, the CPI forecast looks okay, and just now WTI oil prices broke below $92. So, would you dare to go long? Personally, I wouldn’t dare. But I did short oil prices, and I’ve been holding onto it for over two months now. Still holding DYOR