September outlook for the US stock market: The rise and fall around 30000 points will be determined by inflation and interest rates, with risks outweighing opportunities! My judgment is that September should be the first to test support, and then the direction will be determined by inflation data and the Federal Reserve. The overall trend is towards high-level oscillation and weakening. Before stabilizing at 30400 points with increased volume, it is not advisable to regard the rebound as a new round of main uptrend. The daily chart has already shown the shape of a circular top, with the rebound high point continuously decreasing. There have been several instances of selling pressure between 30000 and 30400 points, but the low point has also been rising recently. The bulls have not completely lost control, so it is currently more like a convergence end, with only 28800 points being breached before the circular top is confirmed. The macro environment is not favorable for overvalued technology stocks. The employment in the United States in August was significantly stronger than expected, and the probability of a rate hike in September increased to about 60%. Oil prices and US bond yields remained high, and the market began to revise its previous loose expectations. The PPI on September 10th, CPI on September 11th, and the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15th and 16th are several important milestones of this month. Before the data is released, the index is more likely to fluctuate between 29200-30000 points, and the direction is likely to be clear before and after the interest rate meeting. Next, we will only look at a few positions: 30000 points: Core pressure zone, after stabilizing with increased volume, look up to 31000 points 29200 points: Short term strong weak line, retested after falling below 28800 points 28800 points: Trend defense level, effective daily loss, looking down at 28200 points and 27000 to 27500 points I give three probabilities for September: 55%: high-level oscillation with weak momentum, 30%: downward break, 15%: breaking through 30400 points and continuing to rise! At the end of the month, it closed between 28800-30000 points, still fluctuating at a high level; Standing at 30400 points, the bulls regained their advantage; If it falls below 28000 points, it should be treated as a top break. There may be a rebound in September, but it is not suitable to chase after the rise. Piercing 30000 points during trading is not considered a breakthrough, as prices remain stable, trading volume keeps up, and at the same time, US bond yields fall, which is trustworthy.