比特幣交易者 科幣託 crypto|Sep 08, 2026 10:22
Don’t start shouting about a crash just because you see 'massive inflows of funds.'
Bitcoin just saw a single-day inflow of $730 million.
From historical experience, this kind of extreme inflow is indeed worth paying attention to.
The last two times similar signals appeared:
BTC saw a maximum drawdown of about 38%
BTC saw a maximum drawdown of about 30%
So, I agree on one thing:
We’re likely already in a phase of local highs. If we see consolidation, pullbacks, or even a deeper correction next, I wouldn’t be surprised at all.
But I want to remind everyone of a very important concept:
Don’t use bear market habits to analyze the current market.
Massive inflows ≠ A crash starts tomorrow
Massive inflows ≠ History will definitely repeat
Massive inflows ≠ This rally is already over
Market conditions, trend structures, and liquidity can all be different.
What this signal really tells us is:
The market is overheated in the short term, risk-reward is declining, and we need to stay cautious.
It doesn’t mean that just because we see a similar historical signal, BTC is guaranteed to crash another 30%-40%.
My current game plan is actually pretty clear:
Short-term: Be wary of local highs and pullbacks.
Mid-term: Wait for a pullback to find new buying opportunities.
Big picture: Don’t switch to a bear market mindset just because of one overheating signal.
The most common mistake in the market:
Always being bearish at the lowest point of a bear market,
And when the trend actually starts to change, your mindset is still stuck in the last bear market.
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