Murphy
Murphy|Sep 08, 2026 06:19
"I think this is the right way to interpret ETF data —— Net Inflow-to-Volume Ratio AKA ETF Flow-to-Volume Ratio (FVR), which tracks the relative changes between the 30-day net flow and trading volume of ETFs. Measured in coin terms, it’s unaffected by price fluctuations. When the red line is above the zero axis, it means ETF buying has outweighed selling over the past 30 days, AP is net purchasing, and funds are flowing in. A high value indicates that most of the trading volume is one-sided, showing market consensus. On the flip side, it suggests that a large portion of the trading volume is hedging against each other, indicating market divergence. By observing, we can see that FVR is highly correlated with BTC price most of the time, showing that the two are interconnected and influence each other at a fundamental level. However, there are times when FVR acts as a leading indicator of sentiment, moving ahead of price action. For example, in the red-marked areas on the chart, the price is rising, but FVR is declining; this indicates that traditional U.S. funds are starting to show divergence. Or, in the green-marked areas on the chart, FVR drops faster than the price. This represents a spreading panic sentiment in the market. So, what we’re seeing now is the former—a slight sign of divergence. As the market digests selling pressure, it needs to rebuild price consensus. Final thoughts: ETF data is publicly available for free, but that doesn’t diminish its importance. However, I don’t recommend drawing conclusions based on a single day’s fluctuations or just net inflows/outflows. It’s more reasonable to observe trends over a period of time. #Crypto #BTC #ETF #MarketAnalysis
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