Let’s first talk about the factors unfavorable to BTC today: (1) International oil prices got a push from geopolitical risks—Brent crude broke through $97/barrel, and WTI crude briefly touched $92.57/barrel. (2) The CLARITY Act: only a 17% chance of passing this year, or it might be delayed until 2030. Haha, this U.S. bill looks like a complete joke. (3) After the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls, the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to over 60%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4.78%, and the Dollar Index rebounded to 99.177. Now, let’s see how these external factors might impact BTC’s price movement: (1) Oil breaking $97 reinforces the inflation narrative, which supports rather than weakens Fed rate hike expectations. (2) This week’s CPI is the real test. If it’s mild, BTC might stabilize and rebound; if it’s high, rate hike expectations will strengthen further, increasing downward pressure on BTC. (3) U.S. Treasury buybacks officially start on Wednesday. If long-term yields can be effectively suppressed, some liquidity might spill over into BTC. (4) The low probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has limited short-term impact on the market. The biggest policy variable remains Friday’s CPI. In summary, I think the probability of Bitcoin directly breaking above 83K in the short term is quite low. It’s more likely to pull back before making another upward push. I’ve pinned my predicted pullback price for Bitcoin on the homepage of my Twitter account.